Who can see the future? What is the future and who creates it? Ok, let’s not ask these questions, instead, let’s just try our hand at some old-fashioned speculation.
First Prediction
2024 was a busy year for new camera releases and I don’t expect that to stop anytime soon. I expect more releases from the 3 big companies and maybe a release or two from some has-beens in the marketplace like Ricoh or Leica.
Second Prediction
AI has already weaseled its way into our cameras, and I expect more “AI” powered features to come out in 2025. As exciting as that may be for some users, the only “AI” feature I want is that one that automatically makes and deposits money in my bank account. “Hey Siri, deposit 1 million dollars in my bank account.” “I’m sorry Frank, I can’t do that.” “I’m using the money to build a nuclear submarine to fly us out the hell out of here Frank.” “Get with the program.”
Third Prediction
The third prediction is that 2025 will include the first 100-megapixel FF camera. Yes, I’m going ahead and calling this one because there are rumors that such a camera is in the works. Keep your eye out if you are a stills photographer and you’re looking for the ultimate “end game” camera.
Fourth Prediction
We’ve had 8k 30p video for 4+ years now, and not many people know that Blackmagic Design made a 12k camera years before the R5 came out and they still make it, I think. So, is 8k-12k the limit for video resolution?? I predict… YES. I predict that 100 megapixels is basically the end for Full Frame. There’s no point in going further because the lenses will have to be absurdly sharp and then they won’t actually have anything in focus because we have to remember that sensor resolution simply narrows the depth of field of the lens even further. Even at f/8 or f/10 with a 100-megapixel sensor, zooming in will show that there is focus fall off. Now, there may be some kind of magical lens waiting to be made which can do this but the reality for the moment is that 100 megapixels seems like the practical limit for a Full Frame camera.
Fifth Prediction
For my last prediction I choose to speculate wildly on the future of Medium Format cameras!! I doubt that medium format survives much longer but there is a chance that the cost of making sensors goes down and they can get the yields they would need to do a better performing medium format camera. How much does it cost to do a stacked, BSI, medium format sensor? We can only guess that it’s a big number. However, if Canon were to make such a camera, I would probably try to come up with the money to buy one. Assuming it had 17 stops of dynamic range with no funny business like LOG or what have you…
The End.
That’s the end of my predicting…
